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DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20200423T160000
DTEND;TZID=UTC:20200423T170000
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CREATED:20200424T193549Z
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UID:1419-1587657600-1587661200@rpm.physics.lbl.gov
SUMMARY:Seljak\, Modi\, Boehm (RPM)
DESCRIPTION:Uros Seljak\, Chirag Modi\, Vanessa Boehm (LBL/Berkeley)\nHow deadly is COVID-19?  A time series analysis of Italy mortality data\n\nAbstract:\n\nA counterfactual analysis of 2020 mortality data reported from towns in Italy\, with data from the previous five years as control\, reveals a large excess of deaths in March 2020. The analysis shows a good agreement with reported COVID-19 mortality for age<70 years\, but an excess in total mortality increasing with age above 70 years\, suggesting there is a large population of predominantly old people missing from  the official fatality statistics. We estimate that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy is 52\,000 $\pm$ 2000 as of April 18 2020\, more than a factor of 2 higher than the official number. We determine infection fatality rate (IFR) lower bound of 0.84% for Lombardia and infection rate of 23% for Lombardia\, a factor of 35 above the number of positive tests. The infection rate for Bergamo province is 63%\, suggesting herd immunity has been reached there. The analysis can help predict corresponding numbers in USA: we predict 0.5% lower bound on IFR for NYC and Santa Clara county. We observe that the COVID-19 mortality tracks closely the overall mortality of the underlying population\, explaining why we see so many more deaths below age of 65 as a fraction of total in NYC relative to Italy. \nSlides \nWatch Video
URL:https://rpm.physics.lbl.gov/event/rpm-talk/
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